Process Research

Most of the historical, economical and socio-scientific processes show decreasing, increasing or changing trend-directions in the long term. These trend-directions are often overlaid by cyclical fluctuations, and by series with information for less than a year they are overlaid by seasonal fluctuations. With these kinds of developments associations of long-term-dynamics with economical or societal causes are linked with.

Karl Marx for example forecasted that the profit rate tends to decline, Kondratieff and Schumpeter affirmed that in free-market-systems economic growth will occur in 'long waves', sociologists deal with the growing functional differentiation, growing rationalization and growing individualization etc. in the long term.

Using the methodology of (univariate and mulitvariate) time-series-analysis  in historical time series (as indicators of processes)

• short- and long termed changes can be analysed in their level,
• regularities can be analysed in their fluctuation range and their historical special features,
• the consequences of influencing variables in their dynamic combination between time-series of different indicators 
• as well as the predictability of historical processes can also be analysed.

Basic sources for the construction of time series are official statistics, content analysis and cumulative survey data.

Contact