Christmann, Pablo, Pedro C. Magalhães, and Sofia Vasilopoulou. 2026. "Divergent Paths of Political Trust in Southern Europe: The Roles of Economic Performance, Corruption, Congruence, and Polarisation." South European Society and Politics online first:
https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2025.2576094
This study examines long-term patterns of political trust in Southern Europe through a comparison of Greece, Portugal, and Spain— countries that led the third wave of democratisation. Drawing on data from 45 Eurobarometer surveys (1997–2022), it tests four explanations of political trust: macroeconomic performance, corruption, ideological congruence, and party-system polarisation.
The analysis highlights the varying importance of these factors across countries. Economic performance and political polarisation consistently influence trust, while corruption is a significant factor in Greece and Spain. Ideological congruence shows no substantial effect, except in Portugal.
The study demonstrates that countries exposed to a common systemic shock may nonetheless develop divergent trajectories of political trust, shaped by the interaction of economic and political conditions.