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German Microdata Lab

There goes the 'Auswahlbezirk': Estimation of the 'White-Flight'-Effect with the German Microcensus

Author: Klaus Pforr

Project description

In the US literature, the “white-flight” effect, i.e. the impact of the proportion of ethnic minorities on the emigration of ethnic majorities, has been known since the 1920s. Despite extensive research, including from the UK, the Netherlands and other Scandinavian countries, new research is still emerging on this topic. In Germany, there is very little solid research on this phenomenon, mainly due to the comparative lack of data. This article attempts to close this gap with the help of the microcensus. Using the 2016-2019 microcensus panel, we estimate the effect of the proportion of migrants in the selected district on the probability of out-migration of individual households in the selected district.  To do this, we first link the SUF of the 2016-2019 microcensus at household level over time. Then we heuristically estimate rotation districts and out-migration. The ethnicity of each household is estimated from the country of birth data. From this, the migrant shares for each sampling district can be calculated. Using the information over time across the four panel years, an OLS regression of the out-migration probability in year t on the migrant share in the selection district in year t-1 with fixed household effects is estimated. The first results show that the phenomenon of “white-flight” also exists in Germany, but that homophily is only very weakly pronounced among the ethnic minority.

Publications:

Pforr, Klaus (2024): "There goes the "Auswahlbezirk": Estimation of "White-Flight"-Effects using the German Microcensus ." Research Colloquium "Comparative Stratification Research" 2024, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, 2024-06-18.

Pforr, Klaus (2024): "There goes the „Auswahlbezirk“: Estimation of „White-Flight“-Effects using the German Microcensus." Workshop “The politics of residential mobility: Causes and consequences”, Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung (MZES), Mannheim, 2024-02-01.

Pforr, Klaus (2023): "There goes the 'Auswahlbezirk': Estimation of the 'White-Flight'-Effect with the German Microcensus." ECSR Annual Conference 2023, Prague, 2023-09-18.

Pforr, Klaus (2023): "There goes the Auswahlbezirk: Estimating the “White-Flight” effect with the Microcensus." Frontiers in Policy Relevant Population Research, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Wiesbaden, 2023-07-03.

Pforr, Klaus (2023): "There goes the 'Auswahlbezirk': Estimation of 'White-Flight'-Effects using the German Microcensus." Workshop "Current Perspectives of Spatial Mobilities", IAB , Nürnberg, 2023-03-30.

Pforr, Klaus (2022): "There goes the Auswahlbezirk: Schätzung des "White-Flight"-Effekts mit dem Mikrozensus." 10. Konferenz "Forschen mit dem Mikrozensus", Online, 2022-11-24.