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Vita

Stephen Quinlan Ph.D., is the manager of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES - www.cses.org ) project and Senior Researcher in the Department of Monitoring Society and Social Change (International Survey Team). His research interests focus on electoral behavior in a comparative perspective, specifically elections, political parties, referendums, opinion polls, and the impact of social media on electoral behavior. 

For CSES, Steve serves on the CSES Planning Committee, the project's governing committee, and leads the project's Secretariat based at GESIS. He is responsible for the creation, implementation, and maintenance of the CSES dataset and documentation, and ensuring the data quality of the project. He oversees the Secretariat staff, project communications, and helps develop new strategic initiatives for CSES. Steve is also a macro-political data specialist drawing on his extensive expertise in electoral politics and also at the forefront of organizing international scientific conferences, panels, and meetings. For GESIS, Steve is the co-convenor of the GESIS Lecture Series for 2017. 

Steve received his Ph.D. in political science from University College Dublin in 2012. Prior to his appointment at GESIS, he was a postdoctoral associate at the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow. He has served as a consultant to Eurobarometer and the Irish national broadcaster, RTE, for its Election coverage. He has been a Visiting Fellow at University of Iowa (Spring 2020), the Australian National University Canberra (Spring 2019), Stanford University, California, in Fall 2015, and the International Council for Canadian Studies Visiting Fellow at the Canadian Research Chair in Electoral Studies at the Université de Montréal Project in Fall 2011. To top

Publications

Publication

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Journal article

Quinlan, Stephen, and Michael Lewis-Beck. 2023. "A Political-History Forecast Model of Congressional Elections: Lessons Learned from Campaign 2022." Polity 55 (3): 604-609. doi: https://doi.org/10.1086/725252.

Dentler, Klara, Katharina Blinzler, and Stephen Quinlan. 2023. "Electoral Messiah or Party Label? Quantifying and Investigating Leader-Party Relationships in German Federal Elections 1998–2021." Electoral Studies online first. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102699.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2023. "Special elections in alternative vote electoral systems: Exploring turnout and the vote in Irish by-elections 1923-2019." British Journal of Politics & International Relations 25 (1): 156-177. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148121104573.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Ian McAllister. 2022. "Leader or party? Quantifying and exploring behavioral personalization 1996–2019." Party Politics 28 (4): 24-37. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688211019239.

Okolikj, Martin, Stephen Quinlan, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2022. "Macroeconomy and macropartisanship: Economic conditions and party identification." Politics & Policy 50 (4): 700-719. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12473.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2022. "Predicting bloc support in Irish general elections 1951-2020: a political history model." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties online first. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2022.2120884.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stephen Quinlan. 2021. "Brexit and prosperity but defeat: the economic vote conundrum in the 2020 Irish election." Irish Political Studies 36 (4): 556-80. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2021.1975433.

Dassonneville, Ruth, Stephen Quinlan, and Ian McAllister. 2021. "Female leader popularity and the vote 1996-2016: a global exploratory analysis." European Journal of Politics and Gender 4 (3): 341-359. doi: https://doi.org/10.1332/251510820X16073612895666.

Quinlan, Stephen, Christian Schnaudt, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck. 2021. "Forecasting bloc support in German federal elections: A political-history model." Political Science & Politics 55 (1): 91-6.

Okolikj, Martin, and Stephen Quinlan. 2021. "The compleat German economic voter: New pathways in patrimonial and positional economic voting." German Politics 30 (4): 503-522. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2020.1750006.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Martin Okolikj. 2020. "Exploring the neglected dimension of the economic vote: a global analysis of the positional economics thesis." European Political Science Review 12 (2): 219-237. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755773920000028.

Guntermann, Eric, and Stephen Quinlan. 2020. "Following the coalition?: Testing the impact of coalitions on policy preferences in Germany." Party Politics online first. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068820976281.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Hannah Schwarz. 2020. "The transfers game: A comparative analysis of the mechanical effect of lower preference votes in STV systems." International Political Science Review online first. doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512120907925.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Deirdre Tinney. 2019. "A populist wave or metamorphosis of a chameleon?: Populist attitudes and the vote in 2016 in the United States and Ireland." Economic and Social Review 50 (2): 281-324. https://www.esr.ie/article/view/1183/224.

Elkink, Johan A., Stephen Quinlan, and Richard Sinnott. 2019. "Economic voting in EU referendums: Sociotropic versus egocentric voting in the Lisbon treaty plebiscites in Ireland." Politics and Governance 7 (2): 334–350. doi: https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v7i2.1944.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Martin Okolikj. 2019. "Patrimonial economic voting: a cross-national analysis of asset ownership and the vote." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties online first. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2019.1655758.

Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Stephen Quinlan. 2019. "The hillary hypotheses: Testing candidate views of loss." Perspectives on Politics 17 (3): 646-665. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S153759271800347X.

Quinlan, Stephen, Tobias Gummer, Joss Roßmann, and Christof Wolf. 2018. "‘Show me the money and the party!’ – variation in Facebook and Twitter adoption by politicians." Information, Communication & Society 21 (8): 1031-1049. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1369118X.2017.1301521.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Martin Okolikj. 2017. "The decline of a dominant political monolith: understanding Fianna Fáil’s vote 1987–2016." Irish Political Studies 32 (1): 164-90. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2016.1272585.

Okolikj, Martin, and Stephen Quinlan. 2016. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections." Politics and Governance 4 (1): 145-166. doi: https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i1.458.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Martin Okolikj. 2016. "This Time It's Different...But Not Really! The 2014 European Parliament Elections in Ireland." Irish Political Studies 31 (2): 300-314. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2016.1151415.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2015. "Facilitating the Electorate: A Multilevel Analysis of Election Timing, Registration Procedures, and Turnout." Irish Political Studies 30 (4): 482-509. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2015.1099041.

Quinlan, Stephen, Mark Shephard, and Lindsay Paterson. 2015. "Online discussion and the 2014 Scottish independence referendum: flaming keyboards or forums for deliberation?" Electoral Studies 38 192-205. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.02.009.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2012. "The Lisbon experience in Ireland: 'No' in 2008 and 'Yes' in 2009 - how and why?" Irish Political Studies 27 (1) 139-153. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907184.2012.636185.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2010. "The 2009 European parliament elections in the Republic of Ireland." Irish Political Studies 25 (2) 289-301. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907181003703581.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2009. "The Lisbon treaty referendum in Ireland." Irish Political Studies 24 (1) 107-121. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/07907180802674381.

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Chapter in an edited book

Quinlan, Stephen, and Eoin O'Malley. 2018. "Popularity and performance?: Leader effects in the 2016 election." edited by Michael Marsh, David Farrell, and Theresa Reidy, http://www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526122674/.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2016. "Identity formation and political generations: Age, cohort, and period effects in Irish elections." In The Act of Voting: Identities, Institutions and Locale, edited by Johan A. Elkink, and David Farrell, 255-275. London; New York: Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/The-Act-of-Voting-Identities-Institutions-and-Locale/Elkink-Farrell/p/book/9781138842014.

Shephard, Mark, and Stephen Quinlan. 2016. "Social media and the Scottish independence referendum 2014: Events and the Generation of Enthusiasm for Yes." In The Routledge Companion to Social Media and Politics, edited by Axel Bruns, G. Enli, S. Sjogerbø, A.O. Larsson, and C. Christensen, 488-502. London; New York: Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/The-Routledge-Companion-to-Social-Media-and-Politics/Bruns-Enli-Skogerbo-Larsson-Christensen/p/book/9781138860766.

Fortin-Rittberger, Jessica, David Howell, Stephen Quinlan, and Bojan Todosijevic. 2016. "Supplementing Cross-National Surveys with Contextual Data." In The SAGE Handbook of Survey Methodology, edited by Christof Wolf, Dominique Joye, Tom W. Smith, and Yang-chih Fu, 670-80. Los Angeles u.a.: Sage. doi: https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473957893.n42. http://methods.sagepub.com/book/the-sage-handbook-of-survey-methodology/i4509.xml.

Shephard, Mark, Stephen Quinlan, Stephen Tagg, and Lindsay Paterson. 2014. "Engaging the brain as well as the heart: political literacy and social media platforms." In Beyond the Youth Citizenship Commission: Young People and Politics, edited by Andy Mycock, and Jonathon Tonge, 37-41. http://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/PSA%20Beyond%20the%20YCC%20FINAL_0.pdf.

O Malley, Eoin, Stephen Quinlan, and Peter Mair. 2012. "Party Patronage in Ireland: Changing Parameters." In Party Patronage and Party Government in European Democracies, edited by Petr Kopecký, Peter Mair, and Maria Spirova, 206-228. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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Other article

Tinney, Deirdre, and Stephen Quinlan. 2017. "Explaining the Trump Victory: Populist Sentiments and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election." In CSES Blog, http://www.csesblog.org/2017/05/tinney_quinlan/.

Lecture

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Presentation at a conference

Quinlan, Stephen, and Deirdre Tinney. 2017. "A Populist Wave or Metamorphosis of a Chameleon? Populist attitudes and the vote in 2016 in the United States and Ireland." Elections, Parties, and Public Opinion in a Volatile World: A Comparative Perspective. https://www.academia.edu/35188315/A_Populist_Wave_or_Metamorphosis_of_a_Chameleon_Populist_attitudes_and_the_vote_in_2016_in_the_United_States_and_Ireland.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Martin Okolikj. 2017. "Patrimonial Economic Voting: a Cross-National Analysis of Asset Ownership and its Impact on the Vote." EPSA 2017: 7th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, 2017-06-23.

Roßmann, Joss, Tobias Gummer, and Stephen Quinlan. 2016. "The effects of using Facebook and Twitter on candidates’ electoral success: The case of the German Federal Election 2013." General Online Research Conference (GOR 2016), 2016-03-02.

Okolikj, Martin, and Stephen Quinlan. 2015. "Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections." European Election Study 2014 Conference, 2015-11-06.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2015. "Facilitating the Electorate: A Multilevel Analysis of Election Timing, Registration Procedures, and Turnout." ECPR General Conference 2015, 2015-08-29.

Quinlan, Stephen, Tobias Gummer, Joss Roßmann, and Christof Wolf. 2015. "Show me the money and the party: Social media adoption by candidates in the 2013 German elections." EPSA 2015: 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, 2015-06-25.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2014. "Facilitating the electorate: electoral administration, turnout, and information." Election Institutions and Electoral Integrity: A PSAI Roundtable, 2014-10-16.

Shephard, Mark, Stephen Quinlan, Stephen Tagg, and Lindsay Paterson. 2014. "Fading to Grey: consideration and moderation of opinion in the Scottish independence referendum." 4th annual general meeting of the European Political Science Association.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2014. "Identity formation and political generations: age, period, and cohort effects in Irish elections." PSAI 2014: Annual Conference.

Quinlan, Stephen, Mark Shephard, Stephen Tagg, and Lindsay Paterson. 2014. "Party Politics and the Online Grapevine." APSA 2014: Annual American Political Science Association Conference.

Quinlan, Stephen, Mark Shephard, and Tony McGann. 2014. "The online enthusiasm race in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum." 4th annual general meeting of the European Political Science Association.

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Presentation not at a conference

Quinlan, Stephen. 2015. "The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems: Exciting possibilities for cross-national electoral research." The Mannheim Centre for European Social Research Colloquium.

Other

Quinlan, Stephen. 2016. "Understanding Election 2016: Perspectives from Eurobarometer 84." http://politicalreform.ie/2016/03/12/understanding-election-2016-perspectives-from-eurobarometer-84/.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2014. "Interpreting the EP elections in Ireland in 2014." http://politicalreform.ie/2014/05/21/interpreting-the-ep-elections-in-ireland-in-2014/.

Shephard, Mark, and Stephen Quinlan. 2014. "Is the ‘yes’ online tsunami finally paying dividends?" http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/yes-online-tsunami-finally-paying-dividends/.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Mark Shephard. 2014. "Racing Ahead Online, Catching Up Offline." http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/02/racing-ahead-online-catching-up-offline/.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Mark Shephard. 2014. "Yes Side Maintains Advantage in The Online Campaign Battle." http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/06/yes-side-maintains-advantage-in-the-online-campaign-battl/.

Expertise and review

Quinlan, Stephen. 2019. "Eurobarometer 90, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." Anzahl: 1. https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/85322.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2018. "Eurobarometer 88, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." Anzahl: 1. https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/82196.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2017. "Eurobarometer 86, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." Anzahl: 1. http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/download/DocumentKy/77137.

Quinlan, Stephen. 2016. "Eurobarometer 84, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." http://ec.europa.eu/COMMFrontOffice/PublicOpinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/instruments/STANDARD/surveyKy/2098.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Richard Sinnott. 2015. "Eurobarometer 82, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb82/eb82_ie_ie_nat.pdf.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Richard Sinnott. 2014. "Eurobarometer 80, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_ie_ie_nat.pdf.

Quinlan, Stephen, and Richard Sinnott. 2013. "Eurobarometer 78, National Standard Report: Irish public opinion and European integration." http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb78/eb78_ie_en_nat.pdf.