Historical Social Research

Dmitry Zhukov, Valery Kanishchev & Sergey Lyamin: Fractal Modeling of Historical Demographic Processes [Abstract]

The article presents several results of the computer modeling of demographic processes in the late traditional rural communities by means of fractal geometry. A team of contributors developed a model and software for it, then carried out its verification, data processing, computer modeling and interpretation of results. The analysis of modeling outcomes allowed to build a holistic picture of the demographic behavior in rural communities of the Tambov province – one of the typical agrarian regions of 19th and 20th century Russia. Authors describe the degree and ways of how demographic behavior of the society was influenced by such factors as famine, war, epidemics, a level of health care infrastructure development, etc. Besides, it was possible to trace some non-linear effects in demographic strategies agrarian communities followed during modernization processes in Russia in the second half of the 19th and 20th centuries.