Fertility is low when there is no societal agreement on a specific gender role model
Autor/in:
Hudde, Ansgar
Quelle: Universität Bamberg, Fak. Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Professur für Demografie; Bamberg (Discussion Papers / Universität Bamberg, Professur für Demografie, 18), 2016. 32 S
Inhalt: "Many authors argue that societal fertility levels are a function of changing gender relations, but the mechanism behind this association remains unclear and mainly untested. This paper argues that the variation in realized gender roles and gender role attitudes influences fertility: a great variation in attitudes among potential
partners causes uncertainty and conflicts, which decreases people's propensity to choose to have a first or an additional child. How this idea is tested: macro-level regressions are run on 24 countries. A measure for the average gender role attitude as well as the dispersion in attitudes are regressed on the level of fertility. Attitudes
are computed through factor analysis and capture opinions towards the gendered division of given tasks and privileges, such as childrearing or the uptake of parental leave. The measure includes attitudes towards different female and male roles.
The dispersion in attitudes is the standard deviation of the factor variable in the
given country. Attitudinal information are from the ISSP 2012. The analysis gives support to the hypothesis: the greater the variation in gender role attitudes, the lower is the fertility. The association is considerably strong, significant, and holds against various robustness checks." (author's abstract)
Schlagwörter:Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Geburtenhäufigkeit; fertility rate; Elternschaft; parenthood; generatives Verhalten; reproductive behavior; Einstellung; attitude; gender-specific factors; Geschlechterverhältnis; gender relations; Geschlechtsrolle; gender role; Partnerwahl; choice of partner; Familiengründung; family formation; Familienplanung; family planning; internationaler Vergleich; international comparison
SSOAR Kategorie:Frauen- und Geschlechterforschung, Familiensoziologie, Sexualsoziologie, Bevölkerung
International variation in ageing and economic dependency: a cohort perspective
Autor/in:
Loichinger, Elke; Skirbekk, Vegard
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 41 (2016) 2, S 121-144
Inhalt: "Within this analysis of demographic and economic dependency ratios for 45 countries around the world, we reiterate the importance of age- and gender-specific employment levels as well as their determinants when discussing the economic challenges associated with population ageing. Building upon existing research on economic dependency, we portray and discuss cohort variation in employment and its possible effect on the challenges of population ageing, focusing on the implications of high youth unemployment, the role of changes in female employment and the evolution of retirement patterns across cohorts. The insights from our analysis reaffirm findings elsewhere that younger populations may not be as well off in the light of demographic change as an analysis of their demographic structure alone would suggest and stress the importance of considering the cohort dimension of employment in this discussion." (author's abstract)
Quelle: GRADE Group for the Analysis of Development; Lima (Avances de Investigación, 20), 2016. 49 S
Inhalt: As in other developing countries, Peru’s demographic transition is well underway. Concurrently, women's labor market participation and employment rates have substantially increased. In this paper we estimate the causal effect that the reduction in fertility rates has on women's employment using instrumental variables already tested in developed countries - twins in the first birth and the sex composition of the two oldest children. We also analyze the heterogeneity of the effects along three lines: marriage status of the mother, age of the first (second) child, and mother's level of education. We find strong effects of fertility. According to our results, 27 percent of the total increase in women’s rate of employment between 1993 and 2007 can be attributed to the reduction in fertility rates. This is a considerable magnitude, more than four times as large as the estimate for US by Jacobsen et al. (1999). Effects are largest in women with children 2 years old or younger and decline inversely as the first child increases in age, but are still significant when he or she reaches 10. Effects also vary with the mother’s education level, tending to be stronger when women have more education. Finally, these effects are smaller for married women than for all women.
Schlagwörter:Peru; Peru; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; population development; Frauenerwerbstätigkeit; women's employment; Erwerbsbeteiligung; labor force participation; Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Geburtenrückgang; declining birth rate; sozioökonomische Faktoren; socioeconomic factors; Bildungsniveau; level of education; Familienstand; marital status; Entwicklungsland; developing country; Lateinamerika; Latin America
Life expectancy in Germany based on the 2011 census: was the healthy migrant effect merely an artefact?
Titelübersetzung:Lebenserwartung in Deutschland auf Basis des Zensus 2011: war der Healthy-Migrant-Effekt nur ein Artefakt?
Autor/in:
Zur Nieden, Felix; Sommer, Bettina
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 41 (2016) 2, S 145-174
Inhalt: "The Federal Statistical Office's 2010/12 general life table is the first to provide results on life expectancy based on census data for reunified Germany. This article therefore examines the question of how the revisions of the population figures from the 2011 census affected the measured life expectancy. To do so, we analysed both the official life tables based on the old intercensal population updates before the census and those based on the population data from the 2011 census. The method used to calculate the census-adjusted 2010/12 general life table was also transferred to separate life tables drawn up for the German and the foreign population. In this way, findings on the so-called 'healthy migrant effect' can be discussed, ruling out possible errors in the intercensal population updates. These errors had previously been cited as the main causes for a distinctly longer life expectancy among the foreign population compared with the German population. As expected, a census-based calculation for the total population and for the German population resulted in only minor revisions to the life expectancy figures. The use of the census results does, however, distinctly alter the life expectancy of foreign women and men. An advantage of over 5 years in life expectancy at birth, measured on the basis of the old population data, needs to be revised to about 2.9 years for men and 2.1 years for women based on the 2011 census. The healthy migrant effect therefore cannot be traced back solely to data artefacts from the old intercensal population updates - even with revised data, the foreign population shows marked survival advantages." (author's abstract). Online Appendix: http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2016-06en. Documenation: http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2016-07en
Schlagwörter:Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Gesundheit; Datengewinnung; Lebenserwartung; German; alien; migrant; mortality; life expectancy; Ausländer; Datenqualität; Migrant; Federal Republic of Germany; population development; census; Sterblichkeit; Deutscher; data quality; Volkszählung; data capture; health; census effects; healthy migrant effect
Beyond the two-child family: factors affecting second and third birth rates in West Germany
Titelübersetzung:Einflussfaktoren auf die Übergangsraten zur zweiten und dritten Geburt in Westdeutschland
Autor/in:
Schröder, Jette; Schmiedeberg, Claudia; Brüderl, Josef
Quelle: Zeitschrift für Familienforschung, 28 (2016) 1, S 3-18
Inhalt: "Anhand von Retrospektivdaten des DJI Familiensurvey 2000 untersuchen wir die Einflussfaktoren auf den Übergang vom zweiten zum dritten Kind für westdeutsche Frauen der Geburtskohorten 1944-1979 und stellen sie denen des Übergangs vom ersten zum zweiten Kind gegenüber. Anhand von Ereignisdatenanalysen bestätigen wir die aus früheren Studien bekannten Effekte von Alter und Berufstätigkeit. Wir finden eine höhere Übergangsrate zur dritten Geburt für Frauen mit zwei gleichgeschlechtlichen Kindern, die sich vermutlich noch ein Kind des anderen Geschlechts wünschen. Darüber hinaus finden wir eine höhere Übergangsrate zur dritten Geburt für Frauen, die selbst zwei oder mehr Geschwister haben, was wir als Transmission von Familienwerten interpretieren. Zudem haben Frauen, die seit der Geburt des ersten oder des zweiten Kindes den Partner gewechselt haben, eine höhere Übergangsrate zur dritten Geburt, was unter Umständen auf den Wunsch, die Beziehung durch gemeinsame Kinder zu bestätigen, in Kombination mit einer Zwei-Kind-Norm zurückzuführen ist." (Autorenreferat)
Inhalt: "Based on retrospective data from the German Family Survey (DJI Familiensurvey) 2000, we investigate factors associated with the transition from the second to the third child for West German women of the birth cohorts 1944-1979 and contrast them to the determinants of the transition from the first to the second child. Applying event history analysis, we confirm effects of timing and spacing of children and mothers’ labor force participation reported in previous studies. In addition, we find a higher third birth rate for women with two children of the same sex, who might wish to have a child of the opposite sex. Further, we find a higher third birth rate for women with two or more siblings, which we interpret as transmission of family values. Finally, women with a new partner since the first birth as well as women with a new partner since the second birth show higher third birth rates, which might result from a union-confirmation effect of shared children in combination with a two child norm." (author's abstract)
Schlagwörter:desire for children; Familiengröße; fertility; demographic factors; generatives Verhalten; fertility rate; Kinderwunsch; Familienplanung; reproductive behavior; Federal Republic of Germany; neue Bundesländer; family size; soziale Faktoren; demographische Faktoren; Geburtenhäufigkeit; New Federal States; family planning; social factors; Fruchtbarkeit
SSOAR Kategorie:Familiensoziologie, Sexualsoziologie, Bevölkerung
Quelle: Universität Bamberg, Fak. Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Professur für Demografie; Bamberg (Discussion Papers / Universität Bamberg, Professur für Demografie, 19), 2016. 24 S
Schlagwörter:Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Geburtenentwicklung; birth trend; Quantität; quantity; Geburt; birth; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; population development; Bevölkerungspolitik; population policy; Familienpolitik; family policy; Kinderzahl; number of children; Geschlechtsrolle; gender role; Familie-Beruf; work-family balance; internationaler Vergleich; international comparison; EU; EU; Federal Republic of Germany; neue Bundesländer; New Federal States; alte Bundesländer; old federal states
Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990
Autor/in:
Frejka, Tomas; Gietel-Basten, Stuart
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 41 (2016) 1, S 3-56
Inhalt: "This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs." (author's abstract)
Schlagwörter:Mitteleuropa; Central Europe; Osteuropa; Eastern Europe; Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Geburtenentwicklung; birth trend; Geburtenrückgang; declining birth rate; Kinderlosigkeit; childlessness; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; population development; Familienpolitik; family policy; Familienhilfe; family allowance; internationaler Vergleich; international comparison; postkommunistische Gesellschaft; post-communist society