Salmon migration and fertility in East Germany - an analysis of birth dynamics around German reunification
Titelübersetzung:"Salmon migration" und Fertilität in Ostdeutschland - eine Analyse des Geburtenverhaltens nach der Wiedervereinigung
Autor/in:
Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Vatterrott, Anja
Quelle: Zeitschrift für Familienforschung, 30 (2018) 3, S 247-268
Inhalt: This paper uses rich administrative data from the Deutsche Rentenversicherung (German Pension Fund) to describe changes in the timing and the spacing of births that occurred in the period following German reunification. We examine differences in the birth dynamics of East Germans, West Germans, and women who migrated between the two parts of Germany in these years. As the pension registers provide monthly records on whether a person is living in East or West Germany, they also allow us to examine the role of regional mobility in birth behaviour. In particular, we test the "salmon hypothesis", which suggests that migrants are likely to postpone having a child until after or around the time they return to their region of origin. Our investigation shows that a large fraction of the cohorts born in 1965-74 migrated to West Germany after reunification, but that around 50% of these migrants returned to East Germany before reaching age 40. The first birth risks of those who returned were elevated, which suggests that the salmon hypothesis explains the behaviour of a significant fraction of the East German population in the period following German reunification.
Schlagwörter:birth trend; Wiedervereinigung; fertility; demographic factors; remigration; internal migration; Rückwanderung; Federal Republic of Germany; Ost-West-Vergleich; Binnenwanderung; reunification; Geburtenentwicklung; neue Bundesländer; soziale Faktoren; demographische Faktoren; New Federal States; social factors; east-west comparison; Fruchtbarkeit; ordnungsspezifisches Geburtenverhalten; Registerdaten
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 43 (2018) , S 99-130
Inhalt: The two parts of the gender revolution have been evolving side by side at least since the 1960s. The first part, women's entry into the public sphere, proceeded faster than the second part, men’s entry into the private sphere. Consequently, many employed mothers have carried a greater burden of paid and unpaid family support than fathers throughout the second half of the 20th century. This constituted women's "second shift," depressing fertility. A central focus of this paper is to establish second shift trends during the second half of the 20th century and their effects on fertility. Our analyses are based on data on cohort fertility, male and female labor force participation, and male and female domestic hours worked from 11 countries in Northern Europe, Western/central Europe, Southern Europe, and North America between 1960/70 and 2000/2014. We find that the gender revolution had not generated a turnaround, i.e. an increase in cohort fertility, by the end of the 20th century. Nevertheless, wherever the gender revolution has made progress in reducing women’s second shift, cohort fertility declined the least; where the second shift is large and/or has not been reduced, cohort fertility has declined the most.
Schlagwörter:20. Jahrhundert; Italy; Netherlands; birth trend; fertility; Gleichstellung; Arbeitsteilung; Sweden; Familienpolitik; gender role; Familie-Beruf; Italien; Federal Republic of Germany; work-family balance; Kanada; Geschlechtsrolle; Norway; Geburtenentwicklung; labor force participation; Norwegen; Finnland; family policy; United States of America; Fruchtbarkeit; Erwerbsbeteiligung; Schweden; France; division of labor; Spanien; USA; Großbritannien; Finland; woman; Frankreich; Great Britain; Spain; affirmative action; gender-specific factors; Canada; twentieth century; Niederlande; two-part gender revolution; transformation of male breadwinner family model; women in public sphere; men in private sphere; women's second shift
SSOAR Kategorie:Frauen- und Geschlechterforschung, Bevölkerung
The Same Fertility Ideals as in the Country of Origin? A Study of the Personal Ideal Family Size among Immigrant Women in Italy
Autor/in:
Mussino, Eleonora; Ortensi, Livia Elisa
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 43 (2018) , S 243-274
Inhalt: The role of the personal ideal family size for international migrants has rarely been studied in the current debate on fertility and migration in the European context. It is not known to which extent the reduction of fertility observed among immigrants who settle in a country where fertility is lower than in their country of origin is the result of a change in fertility norms among those immigrants. The study of migrants' ideals family size has the potential to shed light on fertility norms without the interference of economic conditions and migration-related disruptive phenomena. Due to the complexity of its migration context, Italy is an interesting destination country for studying changes in migrants' ideal family sizes. This paper uses data from the survey of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) on immigrant families conducted in 2011-12. We compare the personal ideal family size of women of reproductive age with the prevalent norm in their country of origin, applying a multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results show that the country of origin has an important role in the determination of immigrants’ ideal family sizes. Women from countries where large families are the ideal are more likely to show a lower personal ideal family size compared to their non-migrant co-nationals, while women from countries where two children are considered ideal mostly share the same norm. The occurrence of fertility preferences expressed in a non-numeric form (e.g. "Up to God") changes between women with different countries of origin. This study confirms that conformity with the ideal of the country of origin is more likely among women who migrated as adults. At the same time, the number of years spent in the destination country is not significantly associated with a shift away from the norms prevalent in the country of origin. Finally, female empowerment and gender equity show their effects mainly on the reduction of non-numeric responses.
Schlagwörter:Migrant; migrant; woman; Italien; Italy; Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Kinderzahl; number of children; generatives Verhalten; reproductive behavior; Familiengröße; family size; Norm; standard; Tradition; tradition; Herkunftsland; country of origin; Geschlechtsrolle; gender role; Gleichberechtigung; equality of rights; sozioökonomische Faktoren; socioeconomic factors; Ideal number of children; Fertility; Migrants; Italy; Gender Norms
SSOAR Kategorie:Bevölkerung, Familiensoziologie, Sexualsoziologie, Frauen- und Geschlechterforschung
Fertility Intentions across Immigrant Generations in Sweden: Do Patterns of Adaptation Differ by Gender and Origin?
Autor/in:
Carlsson, Erik
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 43 (2018) , S 211-242
Inhalt: In being representative of individuals' demographic value orientations, fertility preferences provide information about immigrants' adaptation to family formation patterns in the destination country at a deeper, ideational level than actual fertility does. Using data from Wave 1 of the Swedish GGS from 2012/2013 (n=3,932), this study compares the first, 1.5, and second generations with either one or two foreign-born parent(s) to Swedes without an immigrant background by gender and across origins. Binary logistic regression is used to compare the propensity to state a positive fertility intention, and partial proportional odds models are used to analyse differences across four ordinal intention categories (definitely/probably yes/no). Results show a general tendency towards convergence from the relatively positive intentions of the first generation to levels closer to non-immigrants in later generations, although complete convergence is only found for the second generation with one foreign-born parent. There are gender differences, with women being similar to non-immigrants by the 1.5 generation, while there is no clear intergenerational trend for men. Among origin groups, convergence is evident among Eastern Europeans and "other non-Europeans", while Westerners already are similar to non-immigrants in the first generation, and Middle Easterners/North Africans display no clear intergenerational trend. This study contributes to the understanding of immigrant fertility by showing that there often is intergenerational adaptation at the ideational (i.e. preference) level, that the pace and extent of convergence vary by gender and across origins, and that group-level patterns found for fertility intentions do not always match those found in earlier research on fertility behaviour.
Schlagwörter:Migrant; migrant; Einwanderung; immigration; Schweden; Sweden; erste Generation; first generation; zweite Generation; second generation; Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Familienplanung; family planning; generatives Verhalten; reproductive behavior; Familiengröße; family size; Präferenz; preference; Intention; intention; gender-specific factors; soziale Anpassung; social adjustment; Gender Survey
The Same Fertility Ideals as in the Country of Origin? A Study of the Personal Ideal Family Size among Immigrant Women in Italy
Autor/in:
Mussino, Eleonora; Ortensi, Livia Elisa
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 43 (2018) , S 243-274
Inhalt: The role of the personal ideal family size for international migrants has rarely been studied in the current debate on fertility and migration in the European context. It is not known to which extent the reduction of fertility observed among immigrants who settle in a country where fertility is lower than in their country of origin is the result of a change in fertility norms among those immigrants. The study of migrants' ideals family size has the potential to shed light on fertility norms without the interference of economic conditions and migration-related disruptive phenomena. Due to the complexity of its migration context, Italy is an interesting destination country for studying changes in migrants' ideal family sizes. This paper uses data from the survey of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) on immigrant families conducted in 2011-12. We compare the personal ideal family size of women of reproductive age with the prevalent norm in their country of origin, applying a multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results show that the country of origin has an important role in the determination of immigrants’ ideal family sizes. Women from countries where large families are the ideal are more likely to show a lower personal ideal family size compared to their non-migrant co-nationals, while women from countries where two children are considered ideal mostly share the same norm. The occurrence of fertility preferences expressed in a non-numeric form (e.g. "Up to God") changes between women with different countries of origin. This study confirms that conformity with the ideal of the country of origin is more likely among women who migrated as adults. At the same time, the number of years spent in the destination country is not significantly associated with a shift away from the norms prevalent in the country of origin. Finally, female empowerment and gender equity show their effects mainly on the reduction of non-numeric responses.
Schlagwörter:Italy; fertility; reproductive behavior; number of children; gender role; Migrant; Italien; sozioökonomische Faktoren; Geschlechtsrolle; Gleichberechtigung; country of origin; family size; Kinderzahl; Fruchtbarkeit; Tradition; Familiengröße; generatives Verhalten; Norm; migrant; Herkunftsland; standard; equality of rights; socioeconomic factors; woman; tradition; Ideal number of children; Fertility; Migrants; Italy; Gender Norms
SSOAR Kategorie:Frauen- und Geschlechterforschung, Familiensoziologie, Sexualsoziologie, Bevölkerung
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 43 (2018) , S 275-306
Inhalt: In this article we investigate fertility intentions of Russian women in Estonia from an origin-destination perspective. Russian migrants to Estonia and their descendants are compared with women in the sending and host countries in order to identify similarities and differences in intended transitions to first, second and third births. The study is based on the Estonian and Russian Generations and Gender Surveys, which were conducted in 2004/2005, and employs logistic regression models. The dependent variables are intentions to become a mother, to have a second child, or to have a third child. The hypotheses for the study are mainly derived from the adaptation, cultural maintenance, and selection (characteristics) perspectives. We also incorporate attitudes towards gender roles into the models, which have proven to be a salient factor in shaping childbearing intentions, but have seldom been considered in studies of migrant fertility. Our results lend support to both the adaptation and cultural maintenance perspectives. In accord with the latter, the similarity between the childbearing intentions of Russian migrants and their descendants in Estonia and those of their counterparts in Russia suggests that socialisation to the ethnic subculture has prevailed over the influence of the host society. We attribute this outcome to contextual features that have retarded integration processes. By contrast, we observe that proficiency in the host country language, residence in areas where the host population constitutes a large majority and having a native partner significantly contribute to the adaptation of migrants' intentions to have another child to those of the host population. These results provide support to the adaptation argument. Finally, our study reveals a positive association between egalitarian views on gender roles and women's intentions to have another child. However, variation in gender role attitudes accounts for a relatively minor part of the difference in intended fertility between the groups addressed in this study.
When Paid Work Matters for Fertility Intentions and Subsequent Behavior: Evidence from Two Waves of the Austrian Gender and Generation Survey
Autor/in:
Hanappi, Doris; Buber-Ennser, Isabella
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 42 (2017) , S 245-279
Inhalt: "The anticipated risk of job loss and material insecurity are related to fertility postponement in the same way as unemployment is. Given the sequential nature of fertility and occupational decisions, unfavorable working conditions should be resolved before having children, and result in an increase in people's assignment of importance to paid work when developing their childbearing plans. We aim to demonstrate this link, focusing on perceived employment and material insecurity, the importance assigned to paid work in forming fertility intentions, the construction of fertility intentions, and their realization. Using two waves of the Austrian Generations and Gender Survey, we apply probit regressions to analyze gender variations in the associations between uncertainty conditions, the importance of paid work, fertility intentions and behavior. Results reveal that work and related benefits become salient when they are insecure, and that material insecurity among men discourages childbearing. For women, we find support for the hypothesis that the anticipated risk of job loss inhibits the realization of fertility intentions - intentions which are less likely to be constructed under such conditions from the onset of family planning processes." (author's abstract)
Schlagwörter:desire for children; birth trend; fertility; social security; Austria; Kinderwunsch; Familienplanung; Erwerbstätigkeit; gainful employment; Österreich; socioeconomic factors; sozioökonomische Faktoren; soziale Sicherung; Geburtenentwicklung; gender-specific factors; family planning; Fruchtbarkeit
SSOAR Kategorie:Familiensoziologie, Sexualsoziologie, Bevölkerung
Impact of Regional Factors on Cohort Fertility: New Estimations at the District Level in Germany
Titelübersetzung:Einfluss regionaler Faktoren auf die Kohortenfertilität: neue Schätzwerte auf Kreisebene in Deutschland
Autor/in:
Bujard, Martin; Scheller, Melanie
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 42 (2017) , S 55-87
Inhalt: "Incorporating the regional context into fertility research has a long standing tradition. However, in Germany, fertility data at the district level only exist for period total fertility rates (TFR), but not for cohort total fertility rates (CTFR). Based on the 2011 census and birth statistics, we estimate the CTFR at the district level and analyse factors influencing their variation. First, we estimate the CTFR for the 1969-72 cohorts in all 402 German districts. The estimated CTFR differ strongly across German districts ranging between 1.05 and 2.01. Further, the estimated CTFR differ substantially from the known TFR values. This is mainly due to biases in the tempo component of the TFR, which are crucial in East German districts, university cities and in urban-rural comparisons. Therefore, the estimated CTFR allow for a better assessment of fertility differences across districts. Second, we analyse the differences in the newly estimated CTFR employing regression models. Composition effects such as a low proportion of highly educated women, a high share of Catholics or immigrants are significantly associated with higher CTFR in West German districts. However, regional opportunities are also important: A low population density, the availability of relatively spacious dwellings, a surplus of males, a small service sector and low unemployment rates are associated with higher fertility. Overall the analyses show regional factors are highly relevant for fertility." (author's abstract). This article contains supplementary material in the form of an online appendix: http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2017-08en
Schlagwörter:Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Geburtenentwicklung; birth trend; Kinderzahl; number of children; regionale Faktoren; regional factors; regionaler Unterschied; regional difference; sozioökonomische Faktoren; socioeconomic factors; demographische Faktoren; demographic factors; Bevölkerungsstatistik; population statistics; Mikrozensus; microcensus; neue Bundesländer; New Federal States; alte Bundesländer; old federal states; Federal Republic of Germany; cohort fertility; population geography
Beyond the two-child family: factors affecting second and third birth rates in West Germany
Titelübersetzung:Einflussfaktoren auf die Übergangsraten zur zweiten und dritten Geburt in Westdeutschland
Autor/in:
Schröder, Jette; Schmiedeberg, Claudia; Brüderl, Josef
Quelle: Zeitschrift für Familienforschung, 28 (2016) 1, S 3-18
Inhalt: "Anhand von Retrospektivdaten des DJI Familiensurvey 2000 untersuchen wir die Einflussfaktoren auf den Übergang vom zweiten zum dritten Kind für westdeutsche Frauen der Geburtskohorten 1944-1979 und stellen sie denen des Übergangs vom ersten zum zweiten Kind gegenüber. Anhand von Ereignisdatenanalysen bestätigen wir die aus früheren Studien bekannten Effekte von Alter und Berufstätigkeit. Wir finden eine höhere Übergangsrate zur dritten Geburt für Frauen mit zwei gleichgeschlechtlichen Kindern, die sich vermutlich noch ein Kind des anderen Geschlechts wünschen. Darüber hinaus finden wir eine höhere Übergangsrate zur dritten Geburt für Frauen, die selbst zwei oder mehr Geschwister haben, was wir als Transmission von Familienwerten interpretieren. Zudem haben Frauen, die seit der Geburt des ersten oder des zweiten Kindes den Partner gewechselt haben, eine höhere Übergangsrate zur dritten Geburt, was unter Umständen auf den Wunsch, die Beziehung durch gemeinsame Kinder zu bestätigen, in Kombination mit einer Zwei-Kind-Norm zurückzuführen ist." (Autorenreferat)
Inhalt: "Based on retrospective data from the German Family Survey (DJI Familiensurvey) 2000, we investigate factors associated with the transition from the second to the third child for West German women of the birth cohorts 1944-1979 and contrast them to the determinants of the transition from the first to the second child. Applying event history analysis, we confirm effects of timing and spacing of children and mothers’ labor force participation reported in previous studies. In addition, we find a higher third birth rate for women with two children of the same sex, who might wish to have a child of the opposite sex. Further, we find a higher third birth rate for women with two or more siblings, which we interpret as transmission of family values. Finally, women with a new partner since the first birth as well as women with a new partner since the second birth show higher third birth rates, which might result from a union-confirmation effect of shared children in combination with a two child norm." (author's abstract)
Schlagwörter:desire for children; Familiengröße; fertility; demographic factors; generatives Verhalten; fertility rate; Kinderwunsch; Familienplanung; reproductive behavior; Federal Republic of Germany; neue Bundesländer; family size; soziale Faktoren; demographische Faktoren; Geburtenhäufigkeit; New Federal States; family planning; social factors; Fruchtbarkeit
SSOAR Kategorie:Familiensoziologie, Sexualsoziologie, Bevölkerung
Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990
Autor/in:
Frejka, Tomas; Gietel-Basten, Stuart
Quelle: Comparative Population Studies - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 41 (2016) 1, S 3-56
Inhalt: "This paper examines fertility and family policies in 15 Central and East European (CEE) countries to establish firstly, likely directions of cohort fertility trends for the coming decade; and secondly, to provide an overview and analysis of family policies in CEE countries, and to assess their impact on cohort fertility trends. Demographic analysis suggests that the cohort fertility decline of the 1960s cohorts is likely to continue at least among the 1970s birth cohorts; stagnation cannot be ruled out. Births that were postponed by women born in the 1970s were not being replaced in sufficient numbers for cohort fertility to increase in the foreseeable future, and shares of low parity women (childless and one child) were larger than shares of high parity women among the late 1960s cohorts than in older cohorts. Also, childbearing postponement which started in the 1990s is reflected in dramatic changes of childbearing age patterns. As period fertility rates have been increasing in the late 2000s throughout the region an impression of a fertility recovery has been created, however the findings of this project indicate that no such widespread childbearing recovery is underway. For the first time ever an overview and analysis of CEE family policies is conceptualized in this paper. It demonstrates that fertility trends and family policies are a matter of serious concern throughout the region. The following family policy types have been identified: comprehensive family policy model; pro-natalist policies model; temporary male bread-winner model; and conventional family policies model. The majority of family policies in CEE countries suffer from a variety of shortcomings that impede them from generating enhanced family welfare and from providing conditions for cohort fertility to increase. The likely further decline of cohort fertility, or its stagnation, may entail long-term demographic as well as other societal consequences, such as continuous declines in total population numbers, changes in age structures, as well as implications for health and social security costs." (author's abstract)
Schlagwörter:Mitteleuropa; Central Europe; Osteuropa; Eastern Europe; Fruchtbarkeit; fertility; Geburtenentwicklung; birth trend; Geburtenrückgang; declining birth rate; Kinderlosigkeit; childlessness; Bevölkerungsentwicklung; population development; Familienpolitik; family policy; Familienhilfe; family allowance; internationaler Vergleich; international comparison; postkommunistische Gesellschaft; post-communist society