World War Probability
Here is a sort of scale. Could you with the help of this card (11-point-scale) tell me how you assess the chances of a world war breaking out in the next 10 years.
01. 100% - world war within the next 10 years
02. 90%
... ...
10. 10%
11. 0% - no danger of war
| ZA Study Number | Eurobarometer | Fieldwork Month | Fieldwork Year | Question Number | Variable Name (1) |
| 0627 | ECS71 | 7 | 1971 | Q.35 (2) | V51 |
| 0992 | 8 | 10-11 | 1977 | Q.119 (3) | V16 |
| 1038 | 13 | 4 | 1980 | Q.153 | V59 |
| 1207 | 16 | 10-11 | 1981 | Q.147 | V14 |
| 1209 | 18 | 10 | 1982 | Q.160 | V12 |
| 1319 | 20 | 10 | 1983 | Q.130 | V13 |
| 1321 | 22 | 10-11 | 1984 | Q.116 | V14 |
| 1542 | 24 | 10-11 | 1985 | Q.152 | V14 |
| 1544 | 26 | 10-11 | 1986 | Q.142 | V14 |
| 1713 | 28 | 10-11 | 1987 | Q.132 | V14 |
| 1715 | 30 | 10-11 | 1988 | Q.115 | V14 |
| 1960 | 34.0 | 10-11 | 1990 | Q.16 (4) | V74 |
(1) Please note that the variable names refer to the final ICPSR/ZA codebook editions, if available.
(2) 9-point-scale (0-20% "no danger of war" collapsed into category 9)
(3) Notice reversed scale (category 1 = no danger of war)!
(4) Different question: "How likely or unlikely do you think it is that in the next 12 months, there will be a war, involving military forces from several European countries. Is it very likely, fairly likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?"
See also new trend starting with Eurobarometer 54 : Personal perception of general threats.