Eurobarometer Data Service

World War Probability

Here is a sort of scale. Could you with the help of this card (11-point-scale) tell me how you assess the chances of a world war breaking out in the next 10 years.

     01. 100% - world war within the next 10 years

     02. 90%

          ...   ...

     10. 10%

     11. 0% - no danger of war

ZA Study Number Eurobarometer Fieldwork Month Fieldwork Year Question Number Variable Name (1)
0627ECS71 7 1971 Q.35 (2) V51
09928 10-11 1977 Q.119 (3) V16
103813 4 1980 Q.153 V59
120716 10-11 1981 Q.147 V14
120918 10 1982 Q.160 V12
131920 10 1983 Q.130 V13
132122 10-11 1984 Q.116 V14
154224 10-11 1985 Q.152 V14
154426 10-11 1986 Q.142 V14
171328 10-11 1987 Q.132 V14
171530 10-11 1988 Q.115 V14
196034.0 10-11 1990 Q.16 (4) V74

(1) Please note that the variable names refer to the final ICPSR/ZA codebook editions, if available.

(2) 9-point-scale (0-20% "no danger of war" collapsed into category 9)

(3) Notice reversed scale (category 1 = no danger of war)!

(4) Different question: "How likely or unlikely do you think it is that in the next 12 months, there will be a war, involving military forces from several European countries. Is it very likely, fairly likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?"

See also new trend starting with Eurobarometer 54 : Personal perception of general threats.